It appears that balance is slowly returning to the local housing market. Home price growth slowed in September. Inventory continued to climb, but is still far short of the four to six months that indicate a normal market. Homes are staying on the market longer, giving buyers the breathing room to make the right choice for their situation. With our region’s healthy job growth, and demand still exceeding supply, it’s likely to take some time to move to a fully balanced market.
Home price increases moderated into the single-digits in September. The median price of a single-family home on the Eastside was up 4 percent from the same time last year to $890,0000 but down from a median price of $935,000 in August. Inventory increased significantly and price drops jumped. While the market is softening, the recent expanded presence of Google and Facebook on the Eastside means demand should stay strong. In addition, the area’s excellent school system continues to be a large draw for buyers both locally and internationally.
Inventory was up 68 percent year-over-year in King County due to a higher number of sellers listing their homes and fewer sales. There is now more than two months of inventory in the county, a number we haven’t seen in nearly four years. Despite the increase, there is a long way to go to reach the four to six months of inventory that is considered balanced. In September, the median price of a single-family home was $668,000; an increase of 7 percent from the same time last year and virtually unchanged from August.
Inventory in Seattle surged in September from a year ago. Only San Jose, CA saw the number of homes for sale rise faster than Seattle last month. The median home price in September was $775,000. Up slightly from the $760,000 median price in August and a 7 percent increase from last year. The double-digit price growth of past years appear to be waning and overzealous sellers who listed their homes at unrealistically high prices have been forced to reduce them. Bidding wars have declined and the typical well-priced house is now selling right at asking price.
While not nearly as dramatic as the case in King County, inventory in Snohomish County was up 40 percent. The area has just over two months of inventory with home prices moderating. The median price of a single-family home increased 8 percent over a year ago to $485,000. That’s down from the $492,000 median reached in August and $26,000 less than the peak of the market reached in spring.
This post originally appeared on the WindermereEastside.com Blog.
For the first time in years, the real estate market is finally starting to deliver good news for buyers. The region experienced its third straight month of significant growth in inventory. Homes are sitting on the market longer, prices are moderating, and multiple offers are becoming more rare. Despite the surge in homes for sale, it is still a seller’s market. Inventory would need to triple to reach what is considered a balanced market.
Inventory on the Eastside soared 47 percent over the same time last year. There was a slight increase in new listings, but the jump was mostly due to homes staying on the market longer. Price drops have become more common. With buyers having more choices, sellers need to work with their broker to make sure they price their home correctly the first time. After setting a new high of $977,759 in June, the median price of a single-family home dropped to $947,500 in July. While offering some hope that prices may have started to moderate, the median is still 10 percent higher than it was the same time a year ago.
King County saw the biggest increase in inventory in a decade, with the number of homes for sale jumping 48 percent over a year ago. However, at 1.5 months of supply that’s still well below the 4-6 months of inventory that is considered balanced. The median price of a single-family sold in July was $699,000. That represents an increase of 6 percent from a year ago, but is down 4 percent from the record high of $725,000 set in April. Perceptions that the market is cooling needs to be kept in perspective. Homes here took an average of 15 days to sell.
Seattle saw inventory shoot up 60 percent over a year ago, bringing the supply to its highest level in over three years. Even with the sharp increase, much more inventory is needed to meet the demand for homes in the city and sellers may well decide to jump into the market. According to a Zillow study, more than 97 percent of homes in Seattle are worth more now than the peak level before the housing market crashed. Median home prices are 29 percent above the bubble peak level with the median price in July landing at $805,000; up 7 percent from last July and down from the record $830,000 reached in May.
Snohomish County also had double-digit increases in inventory, though not nearly as great as King County. The number of homes for sale in July increased nearly 16 percent over the same time a year ago, but inventory continues to be very tight. The median price of a single-family home rose 9 percent year-to-year to $495,000. That figure is down from the record high of $511,500 set in June. A move towards a more moderated market is encouraging for buyers and an incentive for sellers to list their homes soon.
This post originally appeared on the WindermereEastside.com Blog.
It’s the time of the year when our Chief Economist Matthew Gardner looks deep into his crystal ball to see what’s on the horizon for the upcoming year. As we are all aware, 2017 has been a stellar year for housing across the country, but can we expect that to continue in 2018?
Here are his thoughts:
Millennial Home Buyers
Last year, I predicted that the big story for 2017 would be millennial home buyers and it appears I was a little too bullish. To date, first-time buyers have made up 34% of all home purchases this year – still below the 40% that is expected in a normalized market. Although they are buying, it is not across all regions of the country, but rather in less expensive markets such as North Dakota, Ohio, and Maryland.
For the coming year, I believe the number of millennial buyers will expand further and be one of the biggest influencers in the U.S. housing market. I also believe that they will begin buying in more expensive markets. That’s because millennials are getting older and further into their careers, enabling them to save more money and raise their credit profiles.
Existing Home Sales
As far as existing home sales are concerned, in 2018 we should expect a reasonable increase of 3.7% – or 5.62 million housing units. In many areas, demand will continue to exceed supply, but a slight increase in inventory will help take some heat off the market. Because of this, home prices are likely to rise but by a more modest 4.4%.
New Home Sales
New home sales in 2018 should rise by around 8% to 655,000 units, with prices increasing by 4.1%. While housing starts – and therefore sales – will rise next year, they will still remain well below the long-term average due to escalating land, labor, materials, and regulatory costs. I do hold out hope that home builders will be able to help meet the high demand we’re expecting from first-time buyers, but in many markets it’s very difficult for them to do so due to rising construction costs.
Interest rates continue to baffle forecasters. The anticipated rise that many of us have been predicting for several years has yet to materialize. As it stands right now, my forecast for 2018 is for interest rates to rise modestly to an average of 4.4% for a conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgage – still remarkably low when compared to historic averages.
Something that has the potential to have a major impact on housing are the current proposals relative to tax reform. As I write this, we know that both the House and Senate propose doubling the standard deduction, and the House plans to lower the mortgage interest deduction from $1,000,000 to $500,000. If passed, the mortgage deduction would no longer have value for home owners who would likely opt to take the standard deduction.
If either of the current proposals is adopted into law, the potential reduction in mortgage-related tax savings means the after-tax cost of home ownership will increase for most home owners. Additionally, both the House and Senate bills also end tax benefits for interest on second homes, and this could have a devastating effect in areas with higher concentrations of second homes.
The capping of the deduction for state and local property taxes (SALT) at $10,000 will also negatively impact states with high property taxes, such as California, Connecticut, and New York. Furthermore, proposed changes to the capital gains exemption on profits from the sale of a home (requiring five years of continuous residence as compared to the current two) could impact approximately 750,000 home sellers a year and slow the growth of home ownership.
Something else to consider is that all of the aforementioned changes will only affect new home purchases, which I fear might become a deterrent for current home owners to sell. Given the severe shortage of homes for sale in a number of markets across the country, this could serve to exacerbate an already-persistent problem.
I continue to be concerned about housing affordability. Home prices have been rising across much of the country at unsustainable rates, and although I still contend that we are not in “bubble” territory, it does represent a substantial impediment to the long-term health of the housing market. But if home price growth begins to taper, as I predict it will in 2018, that should provide some relief in many markets where there are concerns about a housing bubble.
In summary, along with slowing home price growth, there should be a modest improvement in the number of homes for sale in 2018, and the total home sales will be higher than 2017. First-time buyers will continue to play a substantial role in the nation’s housing market, but their influence may be limited depending on where the government lands on tax reform.
This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com blog.
Last week Windermere hosted 16 members of the China Alliance of Real Estate Agencies (CAREA) during a daylong tour of Seattle and Bellevue, WA. CAREA is a coalition of the largest regional and national real estate companies in China, representing over 60 percent of all Chinese real estate sales. Their stop in Seattle was a part of a four-city tour that also included Chicago, New York, and Dallas. The cities were identified because of their popularity amongst Chinese investors/buyers, and the CAREA member’s desire to better understand the residential real estate markets in those areas.
The group’s interest in Seattle stems from the growing number of Chinese foreign national buyers in the area, especially in neighborhoods like West Bellevue where real estate brokers say buyers are drawn to the newer homes, top-performing schools, and proximity to high-end restaurants and shopping. This year, Seattle surpassed San Francisco as the second place in the world where Chinese millionaires want to purchase property (according to Shanghai-based Hurun Research).
Windermere took the group on a tour of three luxury homes in West Bellevue that are on the market for between $5 and $10 million. The tour started with a new construction home priced at $6.8 million in Clyde Hill, represented by Windermere broker Shawna Ader. The second stop was a more traditional home in Medina for $5.3 million, listed by Windermere broker Wendy Paisley. The last home was the show stopper, an incredible manse priced at just under $10 million on Yarrow Point, represented by Windermere broker Anna Riley.
Along for the ride were also several members of the media who were drawn to the story about Chinese interest in the Seattle-area housing market. KING 5 News, KOMO 4 News, Q13 News, and the Seattle Times all spent time touring the homes and interviewing representatives from CAREA and Windermere about the reasons why Seattle is an increasingly popular location for international buyers.
Following the luxury home tour, the Chinese guests and Windermere executives gathered for lunch and a presentation by Windermere Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, who provided an overview of the greater Seattle area housing market and economy. The day was then capped off with a seaplane tour of Seattle by Kenmore Air. As CAREA vice president Yi Lui stated after the tour, “A float plane is the way to sell Seattle.”
This post originally appeared on the Windermere.com blog.